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Welcome to my Midterm Elections: Quick Predictions, Part 2! Don’t miss the first part of my election predictions here.
KEY: I = INCUMBENT
Arizona Senate Race: Blake Masters (Republican) vs. Astronaut Mark Kelly (Democrat-I)
Mark Kelly has the famous incumbent advantage, but Blake Masters has run a great campaign against him. Masters has teamed up with Kari Lake on several occasions as the two have held events with each other rallying supporters and getting out the vote. Presumably, it’s a Lake/Masters ticket in Arizona. The Libertarian candidate who was in the race recently backed out and endorsed Masters, which is an advantage. I think the polls have this one in the money, as several polls have this one within a few points. It’s going to be close, but the momentum that Lake has, as well as voters voting for a Lake/Masters ticket, will carry Masters to a win but more narrowly than Lake.
Prediction: Blake Masters
Nevada Senate Race: Adam Laxalt (Republican) vs. Catherine Cortez-Masto (Democrat-I)
This one is really interesting. Five Thirty Eight has Laxalt in the lead by 1.2%, meaning the margin is slim, and it is anyone’s ballgame. The Nevada Senate race might be the tightest race in the entire country. Cortez-Masto has had former President Obama and Sen. Sanders campaign with her. Laxalt has had former President Trump campaign with him as well as receive an endorsement from his longtime friend Ron DeSantis, who rarely gives endorsements, for his campaign for senate. For backstory purposes, Laxalt and DeSantis were roommates at naval officer training. This one will come down to which party comes out to vote and which candidate the Latino community will break for. Trends show that they are moving toward Republicans, but this is going to be razor-thin.
Prediction: Adam Laxalt
Washington Senate Race: Tiffany Smiley (Republican) vs. Patty Murray (Democrat-I)
Washington is a state you’d never think would be in play for Republicans, but here we are in 2022. Murray won by 4.7% in 2010 and in 2016, she won by 18%. 2010 was a year that Republicans did extremely well nationally and she won by under 5%. Now, the economy is in a rough place. Times have changed since the last time Murray was elected. Tiffany Smiley has run an excellent campaign against Murray as she is attempting to portray herself as the “common ground” candidate. She has also done a bus tour throughout the entire state. I think Murray wins, but if Smiley is close, it will be a huge momentum builder for the Washington GOP.
Prediction: Patty Murray
Georgia Governor Race: Brian Kemp (Republican-I) vs. Stacey Abrams (Democrat)
Stacey Abrams does not have the momentum she once did when she ran for governor the first time. Kemp is polling very well. At this point, Stacey Abrams is just auditioning for the next spot on The View.
Prediction: Brian Kemp
New Hampshire Senate Race: Don Bolduc (Republican) vs. Maggie Hassan (Democrat-I)
This is a potential flip seat and Bolduc has a good shot at winning here. It depends on who comes out to vote.
Prediction: Toss-up
North Carolina Senate Race: Ted Budd (Republican) vs. Cheri Beasley (Democrat)
Budd is polling very well and leading by a few percentage points. North Carolina was close in 2020 but I expect differently here.
Prediction: Ted Budd
Oregon Governor Race: Christine Drazon (Republican) vs. Tina Kotek (Democrat)
There is a reason I put this race here. Oregon has been a Democrat stronghold, and Kotek will most likely win but could be an example to use if it is a bad night for the Democrats nationally if this one is more close than many think.
Prediction: Tina Kotek
Wisconsin Senate Race: Ron Johnson (Republican-I) vs. Mandela Barnes (Democrat)
Biden was able to flip this state back to blue in 2020 after Trump flipped it to red in 2016. Ron Johnson’s past rhetoric regarding COVID and January 6th could hurt him here, but his opponent Mandela Barnes in the past has shown support for defunding the police. Defunding the police has shown to be an issue that voters, regardless of party, have been against.
Prediction: Ron Johnson but close
House of Representatives Majority:
Republicans will pick up a lot of seats on Tuesday and Kevin McCarthy will finally become Speaker. McCarthy and the Republican leadership in the House have gunned for this opportunity since losing the house in 2018. They cut the Democrat majority in 2020, and now in 2022, they are forecasted by almost every major election website to take the House in 2022.
Prediction: Republicans win the majority
Senate Majority:
The 50/50 split in the Senate will be broken and Republicans will take back control of the chamber. The only question is who Republicans will name as the Senate majority leader. Is this still a Mitch McConnell Republican-led Senate, or will a new leader be appointed?
Prediction: Republicans win the majority but razor thin*
